Arvid Lindblad’s promotion to a Formula 1 seat within the Toro Rosso outfit has all but been rubber-stamped, and with that decision, one of Red Bull’s juniors is staring down the barrel of expulsion. The relentless nature of Red Bull’s driver program, long notorious for its ruthlessness, means that underperformers quickly find themselves pushed aside. Helmut Marko’s pursuit of a consistent and competitive partner for Max Verstappen has already claimed numerous casualties, and the current shake-up looks set to continue that tradition.
Isack Hadjar has emerged as a rare bright spot in the system, consistently delivering results for Toro Rosso, even managing a breakthrough podium in Zandvoort. His rise has been meteoric, and whispers within the paddock strongly suggest his promotion to the senior Red Bull team is inevitable, leaving Verstappen with a promising new ally. In parallel, 18-year-old Arvid Lindblad, an Anglo-Swede currently flourishing in his Formula 2 rookie campaign, has been earmarked as the next young star to be unleashed, thereby shrinking the available seats in the Red Bull fold to a single slot.
The final chair is a duel between Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson. Tsunoda, now a seasoned campaigner in his fifth year, has seen his safety net erode with Honda’s impending switch to Aston Martin in 2026, removing his strongest backer. His inconsistent points tally—just six in 14 races—paired with occasional errors has left his standing vulnerable. Yet his immense commercial appeal in Japan remains a persuasive bargaining chip.
Lawson, on the other hand, has failed to decisively outshine his rookie teammate Hadjar despite greater experience. Although he has gathered 20 points, his performance has been overshadowed, creating doubts about his long-term viability. Red Bull’s hierarchy is taking its time, postponing a definitive verdict until the winter break. Factors beyond lap times—such as marketability and team harmony—will weigh heavily, ensuring that this decision is far from purely statistical.
Former Toro Rosso boss Franz Tost once remarked that a driver needs three years to fully unlock their Formula 1 potential, a timeline Tsunoda has already surpassed. Despite that, he still enjoys the backing of Red Bull chief Laurent Mekies, who values his proven loyalty and results during their shared tenure. For both Lawson and Tsunoda, the upcoming overseas races may serve as the ultimate audition, with one destined to stay in the spotlight and the other potentially forced to exit the pinnacle of motorsport altogether.
About the Author
